What say you?
Blackfive (h/t Steve D) No, we are not seeing the redrawing of lines in the Middle East. We are seeing the erasing of lines in the Middle East. There is only one line that matters to the islamists and that is the line that separates Dar ul Islam (land of islam) and Dar ul Harb (land of war). Right now in Iraq and Syria, we are seeing the new Dar ul Islam bloom, in the heart of the original caliphate, and it will bloom quickly.
While Baghdad prepares a token defense, Iran prepares to insert military support to the embattled Shia government, the truth is the sheer brutality, and ruthless efficiency of ISIS will quickly overwhelm, as the Shia run for their lives and the Sunni will surrender and pledge allegiance to their new masters, and the new Caliphate. Once Baghdad falls, the rest of the house of cards that is the middle east will fall in short order. If the combat trained and experienced Iraqi military, with our weapons and modern training cannot stand to the fury that is the jihad, who do we honestly suppose would?
So who does that leave? Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain or the Emirates? None of them have the fortitude to stand up, the Royals will run and the islamists will assume control. That would leave 3 holdouts, Egypt, Damascus and Israel. Safe to assume, the Egyptian military will put up some token resistance, but the reality is, they are fully infiltrated by islamists and the muslim brotherhood. Gen al Sisi’s brief victory will be that indeed. (BNI disagrees with this assessment of Sisi) The growing jihad will cause Assad to flee with his Iranian peers, and Israel will very soon find itself surrounded as Dar ul Islam prepares to commit the final purge, pushing the Jews into the sea. (Except for the fact that Israel can and will use its nuclear option if push comes to shove)
We have seen this happen before. We just failed to appreciate the history of islam. The only difference between the 7th Century and the 21st Century is that warfighting capability and transportation are greatly improved. While we may not understand what is happening, the key leaders in the muslim brotherhood, al Qaeda, Turkey and ISIS do and are driving the war as they have envisioned it.
Ayman al Zawahiri wrote to the Iraqi’s frequently before and during and I would suppose after the US invasion and campaign. The theme was to hold on and hold out, that the US was a paper tiger and would cut and run. He said the same to the Afghani’s but there is a difference. Afghanistan is not Arab.
The attention placed on Iraq, even before 9/11 should have lit every analyst’s emergency button, but it did not, the letters lay untouched in the Library of Congress. Only communications from bin Ladin and Zawahiri directed at the audiences in the West were translated by Raymond Ibrahim. Critical to understanding the nature of the war was to understand the enemy, which we have failed to do, over and over and over again. Know the enemy as you know yourself.
Defeat the Soviet Union (communism). That may have been an add-on as a claim for the spoils of victory for the mujahedeen in Afghanistan, but the Soviet Empire finally collapsed at the end of operations in Afghanistan. Whether we in the West claim the victory as we do, or our one time mujahedeen partners, the Soviet Union collapsed in spectacular fashion.
Defeat the West. With our surrender of Iraq and our impending surrender in Afghanistan, the jihadists are considering the completion of stage two and it was a success. As nations who rely on what we consider to be high intellect and our morality, we felt that we own the high ground. Our support to islamist causes, whether it be humanitarian or disaster relief in Indonesia, Somalia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Iran, or support to islamist combat operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Syria, we have deluded ourselves to thinking that we have bought favor and potential alliances. I think the answer should be clear, is no. We have not.
Rather in a stunning and brutally symbolic display, our hand of friendship to the muslim brotherhood was sliced off on 9/11/12 in Benghazi. No response from the West was the final signal, that our white flag was unfurled from dawn to setting sun. To fully ratify this compact with evil, hell we gave them 5 of their key players back, guys who have a list of atrocities so grotesque decorum prevents their listing here. What did we receive? A deserting lunatic, who thought he could change the world with a smile.
This is where we are now. The caliphate. 10,000 odd fighters from Syria and western Iraq rolling unopposed into Baghdad, collecting new and slightly used combat equipment to include rifles (only dropped once) armor, artillery and aviation assets. Sunni’s and Shia’s alike are deserting en masse from the conquering horde. Sunni’s who supported OIF are being beheaded alongside their Shia counterparts, other Sunni’s are shedding their uniforms and joining the ranks of ISIS.
Will Baghdad stand, no, not for long. We have yet to fully see the bloodshed that will occur as the army of the jihad descends on the metropolis, and those who are unfortunately unable to escape will be killed in the most grisly extermination of humanity we will have ever seen, and yes, it will be seen.
Southern Iraq will empty like a grade school on the last day of school, moving to sanctuary in Iran. With the home of the caliphate secured, the entirety of the middle east will fall into submission. The lines will be erased, the Arab empire will stand in its place with a very large collection of military gear that we and our Soviet antagonists have bequeathed over decades as we fought for influence in that important region. Israel will be in the fight for their lives.
Defeat the apostates. Iran will fall. It will be genocide. We had a chance to spare Iran, but we turned our backs. The Iranian people will suffer for our inaction. Not the Ayatollah’s and the mullah’s, but the average Iranian who wanted to live like their grandparents, and dance to the Happy Song.
The last stage is the biggest and most dangerous enemy to islam, the Asians. Specifically, the Mongolian cousins; Japan, Korea and Mongolia. The warfighting skill and true brutality of the descendants of Genghis Khan are legendary. Japan nearly conquered all of North Asia, Southeast Asia and pushed the Americans out of the Pacific. What would the world look like today if the carriers had been tied to the docks on December 7th, 1941.
The Korean Army and Marines were so feared by the North Vietnamese, they would kill themselves rather than surrender, and lastly, there is a 7000 mile wall that separates China from Mongolia. And it was the Khan’s who adopting islam to help govern their territories, would eventually seize the caliphate and form the longest standing empire.
The Ottoman Empire, which lasted nearly 500 years until it was broken in 1922 at the end of WWI. Broken in part by Arab muslims who did not believe that the Turkish interlopers should command the caliphate of islam.
Wars end when they are ended, not when political expediency and cowardice decide to leave the battlefield. We chose not to end the war, but to be honest; our decision makers have little understanding of what the war is.
The mainstream media trumpets the Administration’s assertions that we need to defeat the group that attacked us (the good war against al Qaeda), but they cannot describe what al Qaeda is. The big fear that another 9/11 is being plotted against the US, is prudent, but we have surrendered, there is no need for al Qaeda to devote resource and mental rigor to another high visibility attack on the West or us in particular. We surrendered and are now a by-pass unit.
While we hold significant combat power, we lack the moral gumption to apply it. No, better to direct the 5th column elements in the country already to conduct small operations, in traffic, in tunnels, at an Army base, or at the Boston Marathon. That increases the likelihood that we will accept our dhimmitude and pay the jiyza tax. Most won’t notice because Jay-Z and Beyonce are fighting in an elevator, who cares if gasoline prices rise to 400 dollars a barrel.
In the minds of our enemy, we have surrendered and there is nothing to fear from us. I dispute their claims, as we both get a vote. We have to muster whatever moral courage we have left and destroy ISIS. The enemy does not acknowledge any rules of conduct on the battlefield, we need to fight him on his terms, not ours. The political-military doctrine that is disguised as a religion needs to be exposed and defeated.
In 1075, Islam devoured Manzikert in what is now Turkey, it was poised to push into Christendom with the ferocity that had consumed Persia, Egypt and the entire Middle East, this was the reason for the Crusades, a defensive action that almost defeated islam, alas it didn’t, and here we are doomed to a repeat of history. We may have only one chance to finish the job. Die free or live as a slave, we don’t have much time to mull that one over.
The author is a retired United States Marine with 30 years of service. A Signals Intelligence and Electronic Warfare specialist, he has also served in Information Operations for II MEF in Iraq in 2005, supported Special Operations Task Forces in Iraq (2005) and the Philippines (2010) and made his final deployment to Helmand Province in Afghanistan in 2011-12. In addition to direct combat operations, he has served on the DMZ in Korea, supported counter-narcotic operations, worked on bilateral exercises and operations with Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Australia and Canada, and was deployed to the Adriatic Sea, while the Bosnian conflict was being settled in 1993.